wireless industry - ein lesenswerter Artikel....

[nickrivers]

Hi und Hallo!

Lange nix von mir hören lassen aber das hat eher private Gründe....

Hier ein Artikel der sich kurz und knapp Probleme und Potential der "Wireless Industry" befasst. Vielleicht interessant für "noch" Anleger von WFII oder etwa OTWO.....

Gruß
nickrivers


Is the wireless industry missing the connection?

By Dan Briody
Red Herring
March 23


What tech slowdown? That was the statement most often overheard at the Cellular Telecommunications & Internet Association (CTIA) Wireless 2001 show in Las Vegas this week, as industry enthusiasm ran rampant, even as technology stocks continued to swoon.

Sporting a packed showroom floor, throngs of attendees, and countless hopeful startups, some of which were flush with new millions in venture capital, there was no evidence of the bear market on the surface. But the cracks in the foundation of the wireless industry were evident nonetheless.

'When things are down, that's when you start pushing harder,' says Rich Sulpizio, president and chief operating officer of Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM). 'Somebody's going to have to make money sometime, so I don't spend a lot of time worrying.'

Unfortunately, investors don't seem to be sharing Mr. Sulpizio's rosy outlook. Qualcomm's stock alone is down 58 percent since this time a year ago, and other wireless stocks have suffered the same fate. Spending on third-generation (3G) networks is out of control and expected to get worse. And government policy is conspiring to limit the growth of this already cash-strapped business. Oh, that tech slowdown.

THREE CHEERS FOR 3G
Perhaps the most interesting phenomenon emerging from the CTIA show was the overwhelming push toward 3G networks. Spending on 3G spectrum through government auctions here and abroad, the anticipated costs of building out the costly networks, and a lack of end-market demand for 3G services have conspired to devastate telecommunications and wireless stocks over the past year. But that is not stopping wireless companies from pushing the services, partially because they have no recourse. For more on why we think this immense 3G buildout will help troubled telecom equipment vendors, click here.

'Let the evolution to 3G begin,' announced Sprint PCS (NYSE: PCS) president Charles Levine, despite what he termed as 'bleak business conditions.' Sprint's aggressiveness in 3G came as a surprise given the problems European carriers have experienced as a result of their rush to build their networks. In fact, Sprint has engaged in a race to 3G with other American carriers, including Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ). Both companies claimed this week they would be first to roll out 3G services in the U.S. Sprint PCS stock is down nearly 15 percent since detailing its 3G plans on Tuesday. Verizon was down 6 percent.

'To me, it's scary that everyone is racing to 3G,' says Ulf Avrin, president of the Ericsson Microsoft Mobile Venture, which sells wireless platforms to carriers. 'Everyone is focusing on 3G, and that is not the answer. They should be going back to basics, but they are looking to push technology, and there is a danger in that. These things need to have demand first.'

WHITE HOUSE, WHITE KNIGHT
But the warnings from Mr. Avrin are going unheeded, and the lessons learned from Europe seem to have been already forgotten. In the meantime, executives from every corner of the wireless markets are stepping up their lobbying efforts for changes in the regulatory nature of spectrum allocation. Fears that the auctions are creating artificial urgency and coming close to bankrupting carriers are driving a new wave of political action.

'Auctions need to be modified to save the industry,' said Chris Galvin, CEO of Motorola (NYSE: MOT). 'Any time there is a chance to innovate, rules and regulations must be modified.'

Mr. Galvin's sentiments were echoed throughout the week, most vehemently by Motorola's competitors in the handset business. 'The fast pace of development that we've had might not continue if we don't put into place a new way to allocate spectrum,' said Jorma Ollila, chairman and CEO of Nokia (NYSE: NOK), appearing via satellite.

For its part, the Federal Communications Commission is in the process of reviewing several policies regarding the allocation of spectrum and admits its existing regulations are outdated. FCC chairman Michael Powell spoke at the conference and alluded to the need for the White House to take a more active role.

But until the specter of bank-breaking auctions is removed and the level of customer demand is made clear, investors will continue to be wary of most wireless stocks, particularly those of carriers. With so much money at stake, and so many questions still unanswered, it would be hard to blame Wall Street for steering clear.

The potential for the wireless market is still huge, but the decisions made by carriers, government officials, and technology providers over the next two years will ultimately decide how fast this market can grow and how successful it will be. Let's hope they make the right decisions.


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