Ich möchte meinen Senf auch zum besten geben.
Erst recht weil ich meine Lieblingslektüre heute genossen habe und euch einen passenden Artikel nicht vorenthalten möchte.
Der bestätigt Oegats (und auch meine) Überzeugung wonach man nur auf der Suche nach Rendite ist.
Fundamentale Gründe werden imho nachträglich passend argumentiert.
Wer will kann sich den ganzen Artikel zu Gemüte führen.
Zwei Sätze fassen ihn aber prima zusammen
The cheapness of money has helped to feed investors' appetite for assets of all sorts—the ubiquitous “search for yield”. The rewards from investing in commodities have so far been extremely juicy.
Schöne Ostern
John
Commodity and bond markets
Flashback
Apr 12th 2006
From The Economist print edition
A new set of ties binds higher raw-material prices and bond yields—for now
AT FIRST glance, it has the hallmarks of a classic inflation scare. In the past week commodity prices—from oil to orange juice, silver to sugar—have reached eye-popping levels. In nominal terms, the prices of Brent crude, copper and zinc have hit record highs. Gold has topped $600 an ounce for the first time since 1980 and silver is at its dearest in a generation. Meanwhile, long-term nominal bond yields in America and elsewhere have risen to levels not seen in more than a year. On April 7th the yield on America's 30-year long bond climbed the 5% barrier, sending a flutter of fear through global markets. The ten-year yield may soon follow.
The rising costs of money and raw materials took leading roles in that economic horror movie, the 1970s, when inflation ran amok and growth froze. Once again, the two are connected, but in ways that are almost opposite to the ghastly stagflation of the past. If there is any common thread linking rising bond yields and commodity prices today it is not inflation, but growth—though there, too, the relationship is likely eventually to break down.
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The commodities boom began in 2003, as China sucked in materials from Middle Eastern oil to Chilean copper. The demand followed a long period of low investment by commodity producers, which exacerbated the sense of a squeeze. This had some curious consequences: in Britain, manhole covers were stolen, melted down and shipped east (tabloids called it “the great drain robbery”).
Meanwhile, despite healthy growth in the world economy, long-term interest rates seemed stuck. Alan Greenspan spent his last year at the Federal Reserve intrigued by the “conundrum” of why long-term bond yields weren't increasing, even as he and his colleagues were pushing up overnight rates to cool their economies. He left before the riddle could be solved.
Now an answer is emerging (see chart 1). Since the turn of the year, the yield on ten-year Treasuries has climbed to its highest level since the Fed started tightening in June 2004. The yield on ten-year German bunds is near a 17-month high. Japanese government bonds have been yielding more than at any time for nearly two years. But by historic standards yields are still low. And the component attributed to expected inflation, measured by subtracting inflation-linked yields from nominal yields, is even less threatening. It has barely budged this year. In America it hovers around 2.5%, in Europe just above 2% and in Japan below 1%—roughly where it has been for two years, even as oil and other commodities have gone ballistic.
There are plenty of reasons why hot commodity prices have not caused too many worries about inflation. One is that markets are confident that central banks will act to contain inflationary pressures. A second is that cheap Chinese exports have held down global prices. Another is that manufacturing's share of the world economy is declining; another is that the intensity with which industry uses raw materials is also shrinking—thinner steel in cars, for example—so that commodities' importance to inflation has diminished. And in real terms commodity prices are still well short of their 1970s peak (see chart 2). They have been on a downward trend since the 19th century, punctuated only by wars and other supply shocks: producers have generally coped with periods of surging demand, and probably will do so this time.
There is also a speculative side to the frothiness in the commodities market, which has grown since the rally started (see chart 3). As pension funds seek new sources of returns, some—such as the giant California Public Employees' Retirement System, with assets of $200 billion—are expected to dip their toes into commodities futures. In Britain J. Sainsbury, a supermarket chain, said it would choose commodities for about 5% of its fund, worth more than £3 billion ($5 billion) in all. Adding to the demand, the listing this year of exchange-traded funds in gold and other commodities has made life easier for would-be speculators. They don't even need to buy gold bars any more.
The cheapness of money has helped to feed investors' appetite for assets of all sorts—the ubiquitous “search for yield”. The rewards from investing in commodities have so far been extremely juicy.
Risks from the bond market
Now bond yields have at last begun to rise, sending returns for bond and commodity investors in opposite directions. The global economy is hot, which requires higher interest rates. To a certain extent, the rise in bond yields is a return to normality after the curious period when they failed to respond to tighter monetary conditions. This is no “debacle”, says Tim Bond, fixed-income strategist at Barclays Capital. “Things are safe and comfortable in the bond market at the moment.”
But whereas in the past higher commodity prices spelled bad news for bond markets, now the shoe may be on the other foot. Few expect that higher long-term interest rates will halt global economic growth, but they probably will have a dampening effect. That in turn should restrain demand for commodities.
Meanwhile, with yields rising, bonds will also compete with commodities for investors' funds, as they have with other risky assets, such as the Icelandic krona and the New Zealand dollar. With investors chasing commodities as if they were buried treasure, the danger is that returns will be even harder to find.