Übrigens,B&H hat im ersten Quartal 320 Millionen USD an Verlusten ausgewiesen.
Dieser Verlust wird sich im 2. Quartal noch ausgeweitet haben da der USD seitdem nochmals um sage und schreibe 6% aufgewertet hat.
Wahrscheinlich ist es das was Warren Buffet meint wenn er sagt:
The derivatives business is like hell - easy to enter and almost impossible to exit
Aber er wird letztenendes Recht behalten:
Buffett bets on weaker dollar
Buffett: Deficit concern led him to put his money where his mouth was
Warren Buffett, the billionaire investment guru, has predicted the dollar will continue to weaken and said he has for the first time been buying foreign currencies.
"Through the spring of 2002, I had lived nearly 72 years without purchasing a foreign currency," he was quoted by Fortune magazine as saying.
Since then, his investment group Berkshire Hathaway has made "significant investments" in, and still holds, several currencies, he said.
"To hold other currencies is to believe that the dollar will decline."
The derivatives business is like hell - easy to enter and almost impossible to exit
Warren Buffett
Profile: 'The sage of Omaha'
Mr Buffett, who in the 1990s famously preferred investing in "bricks-and-mortar" companies to the booming dot.coms, said he was hedging against the dollar because he was worried about the size of the US trade deficit.
He said the deficit had "greatly worsened, to the point that our country's 'net worth' so to speak, is now being transferred abroad at an alarming rate".
If this continued it would lead to "major trouble", Mr Buffett said.
He did not say which foreign currencies he now held.
In recent months, Mr Buffett has criticised the Bush administration's tax cuts as a gift to the rich and agreed to join the team of California governor-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger as economic adviser.
Dazu gesellt sich das neue Aufsichtratsmitglied von B&H Bill Gates:
~ Weekly-Internet Magazine for the Intelligent Investor ~
Sunday, July 3, 2005
In accordance with Title 17 USC Section 107, materials are distributed for fair use and educational purposes.
Bill Gates, World's Richest Man, Bets Against Dollar (Update3)
Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gates, whose net worth of $46.6 billion makes him the world's richest person, is betting against the U.S. dollar.
``I'm short the dollar,'' Gates, chairman of Microsoft Corp., told Charlie Rose in an interview late yesterday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. ``The ol' dollar, it's gonna go down.''
Gates's concern that widening U.S. budget and trade deficits are undermining the dollar was echoed in Davos by policymakers including European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.
The dollar fell 21 percent against a basket of six major currencies from the start of 2002 to the end of last year. The trade deficit swelled to a record $609.3 billion last year and total U.S. government debt rose 8.7 percent to $7.62 trillion in the past 12 months.
``It is a bit scary,'' Gates said. ``We're in uncharted territory when the world's reserve currency has so much outstanding debt.''
A week before Group of Seven officials meet to discuss currency policy, Trichet repeated the ECB's concern over the dollar's drop to record lows against the 12-nation euro currency.
Euro Rally
The euro rose as high as $1.3666 per dollar on Dec. 30. The U.S. currency last traded at $1.3038 per euro yesterday in New York. A stronger euro reduces the competitiveness of European exports and crimps growth among the nations sharing the currency.
``The governing council of the ECB has repeated a very, very short sentence, namely that the sharp moves upward of the euro were unwelcome and that we thought they were counterproductive from the economic growth perspective,'' Trichet said at a Davos panel discussion today.
The last meeting of G-7 finance ministers in Washington in October said that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals and that excess volatility in currencies is ``undesirable.''
U.S. growth reached a five-year high of 4.4 percent in 2004, outpacing Europe for the 11th time in 12 years. The euro region probably grew 2.1 percent, according to European Commission estimates.
Deficit Risks
U.S. President George W. Bush is pledging to clamp down on spending to halve the budget deficit -- $427 billion in the 12 months through Sept. 30 -- during his second term. The administration releases its fiscal 2006 budget on Feb. 7.
The U.S. budget shortfall is ``the No. 1 risk, disregarding geopolitical risks'' to the global economy, German Deputy Finance Minister Caio Koch-Weser said in a Jan. 27 interview in Davos. He urged Bush to present a ``credible'' plan for getting the deficit under control.
Chinese central bank adviser Yu Yongding said in Davos the U.S. government should do more to tackle its record current- account deficit and ease pressure on China to loosen its currency's peg to the dollar.
``The U.S. should take the lead in putting its own house in order,'' Yu said. ``It's the root cause'' of global imbalances. ``China will make its contribution, but the world should not put disproportionate pressure'' on the country.
Buffett's Views
U.S. policymakers, including Trade Representative Robert Zoellick, defended Bush's deficit-reduction plans and blamed the U.S. trade gap on sluggish growth in Europe and Japan, which reduces foreign demand for American goods.
``One has to get the budget deficit down, but the question is how do you do it,'' Zoellick said today on the same panel with Trichet. ``It's at least our view that you want to do it by slowing the growth of spending.''
Gates reflected the views of his friend Warren Buffett, the billionaire investor who has bet against the dollar since 2002. Buffett said last week that the U.S. trade gap will probably further weaken the currency.
``Unless we have a major change in trade policies, I don't see how the dollar avoids going down,'' Buffett said in an interview with CNBC on Jan. 19.
Gates in December joined the board of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., the investment company that Buffett runs. Forbes magazine's list of billionaires ranks Gates, 49, No. 1. Buffett, 74, is second, with more than $30 billion. Almost all of it is in Berkshire stock.
Gates described China as a potential ``change agent'' for the next two decades. ``It's phenomenal,'' Gates said. ``It's a brand new form of capitalism.''
Gates's $27 billion foundation in September received approval from China's foreign-currency regulator to invest as much as $100 million in the nation's yuan shares and bonds.
To contact the reporter on this story:
James Hertling in Davos at
jhertling@Bloomberg.net; Simon Clark in London at
2059 or
sclark4@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Emma Moody in New York at
emoody@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: January 29, 2005 15:44 EST
Das sollte uns nicht davon abhalten unsere eigenen Analysen zu erstellen jedoch bin ich pers. ja auch der Meinung das Alan Greenspan derzeitig versucht die Inflation über einen stärkeren USD zu mildern.
Wenn nun China aufwertet bzw. den Yuan der derzeitig ja bei 8,26 Yuan/USD eingefroren ist freigibt bis auf erwarteten 3-5% mithin auf langfristige Sicht 10% wird der USD seinen Abwertsgang wieder aufnehmen da er gegenüber den Aisatischen Währungen künstl. überbewertet ist und nun sowieso wegen der Inflationsdaten und somit der FED Found Rate noch dazu aufwertet.
D.h im Klartext das der USd bei einer Felxibilisierung seine überbewertung gegenüber den asiatischen Währungen abauen wird.
Greenspan erwartet m.e nach zwingend eine Aufwertung auf absehbare Zeit und verhindert somit nebenbei auch noch einen direkten USD Crash.
Was den Euro betrifft,ich bin pers. der Meinung das nun alles negative seitens der Eu-Verfassung eingepreist ist.
Dort gibt es nicht mehr viel Abwärtspotential seitens der Verbalakrobatiken z.B vom italinieschen Sozialminister,die Deflations Sorgen seitens Italien sind schon länger bekannt und sollte die Liara wieder eingeführt werden so wohl mit niedrigen Zinssätzen welche die Lira noch wesentlich mehr entwerten würde.
Also ist dies nichts anders als Verbalintervention gewesen um der italienischen Wirtschaft somit durch das gießen von Öl ins Feuer noch auf die Sprünge zu helfen.
Das gilt für ganz Europa und dem was von uns aus verlautet wuorden ist.
Das alles sollte nun eingepreist worden sein und derzeitig warte ich nur noch auf eine erste Gelegenheit für einen Euro long auf mittelfristiger Basis dessen Chancen ich zwischen 1,1810 und 1,1750 als geeignet ansehe.
Dort erwarte ich eine größere Gegenbewegung in der hinein man die Situation neu einschätzen kann.
Sämtl. Kursziele,welche schon früh erkannt wurden sind eingetroffen es wartet nur noch das 4 te bei 1,1750 auf seine Auflösung:
Kursziele
Viele Grüsse,
Jörg